Herausforderungen und Chancen in der grenzüberschreitenden E-Commerce-Logistik

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Explore the complexities facing cross-border e-commerce logistics, from the shortage of long-range wide-body freighters to the strained capacity of overseas warehouses. Discover how industry shifts towards full and semi-hosting models are shaping the future of global supply chains.

Cross-border e-commerce is currently grappling with insufficient global logistics infrastructure and a shortage of production capacity. The adoption of comprehensive hosting models by e-commerce platforms has strained air transport capacity. The air cargo market is now facing a surplus of goods but a shortage of aircraft, a widely recognized issue in the industry. Looking ahead, even with normal growth in cross-border e-commerce over the next 5-10 years, global long-range wide-body cargo aircraft capacity will likely struggle to keep pace with demand. This shortfall will significantly impact the scalability of cross-border e-commerce platforms, especially those relying on direct delivery logistics models.

Boeing manufactures over 95% of the world’s long-range wide-body freighters. Ordering and receiving these aircraft takes a minimum of two years, with production costs exceeding $1 billion per unit. Consequently, ordering a freighter isn’t a short-term investment; it’s a decision based on projected returns over the next decade or two. Airlines and financial leasing companies approach such investments cautiously.

Given the full hosting model and the lengthy production cycle of new freighters, the industry anticipates a considerable supply-demand mismatch over the next 5-10 years. The shortage of long-range wide-body freighter capacity will persist, posing a significant bottleneck for air cargo supply under the hosting model. Despite these challenges, there’s optimism regarding the future growth of air cargo capacity on major aviation routes.

Since TEMU introduced its semi-hosting model on March 15, numerous cross-border e-commerce platforms have eagerly joined the trend. Within just three months, the industry’s overseas warehouse resources have become strained due to the surge in semi-hosting initiatives.

Over the past two years, Europe and the United States have been in a destocking phase, leading to minimal expansion in overseas warehouse capacity within the industry. Some regions and countries have even downsized their warehouse operations as part of cost-cutting strategies. Despite the destocking trend, the introduction of semi-hosting models in recent months has nearly filled the limited storage capacity of overseas warehouses, exacerbating issues with production capacity.

Similar to all-cargo aircraft, overseas warehouses require substantial capital investment. Establishing a new warehouse in Europe or the United States typically involves leases of three years or more, with investments amounting to tens of millions of yuan. Therefore, constructing overseas warehouses demands careful consideration and significant financial commitment from large corporations.

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